Housing NeedIn line with Welsh Assembly guidance, a Local Housing Market Assessment was undertaken in 2007.
The future housing market
The draft Local Development Plan (LDP) for Merthyr Tydfil sets out its preferred development strategy for the area over the period 2006 – 2021.The enhanced growth strategy would see the area gain in the region of 1700 households. This policy projection runs counter to the trend based projections which would see the loss of a further 3000 households. The enhanced growth strategy is based on stemming the trend of out-migration from Merthyr Tydfil and attracting in-migrants to live in the area.
The basis for the enhanced growth strategy is the planned implementation of the “Heads of the Valleys Strategy” which identifies Merthyr Tydfil as one of the two significant settlements in the area. The implementation of the Heads of the Valleys strategy will bring increased investment in the built environment, improvements to the transport network and the promotion of business and innovation. These are likely to lead to further improvement in the local economy.
Housing Need
The estimation of housing need used in the Local Housing Market Assessment is derived from a version of the ‘Bramley’ model. This is a widely used and respected model. The model is an economic affordability model which focuses on affordability and the price entry point into the housing market for new households.
The model assumes an entry level price of £80,000 and an evidence based judgement that purchasers will place a 17% deposit on property purchased and obtain mortgages of 3.5 times the gross household income.
The model suggests that if growth takes place at the level set out in the enhanced growth strategy, within the total housing requirement of 3,800 provision needs to be made for 24% affordable housing.
The model estimates that up to 50% of new affordable housing should be in the form of Intermediate housing market products such as Homebuy.
For any further information contact:
Forward Planning Officer, Housing Division, Civic Centre, Castle Street, Merthyr Tydfil, CF47 8AN.
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